Kuwaiti oil experts say recent events in Venezuela are unlikely to disrupt global oil markets in the short or medium term. Even after the surprise capture of President Nicolás Maduro by US forces, analysts argue that Venezuela oil impact remains limited. The operation aims to prepare Venezuela’s oil infrastructure for investment by US companies. Experts stress that immediate supply and price effects are minimal.
Global markets reacted to political upheaval in Venezuela, but the movement was brief. US crude futures initially fell, then rose, finally climbing 0.3 percent. Brent crude showed similar fluctuations, rising 0.2 percent. Traders balanced concerns about geopolitical instability with the potential for future increases in Venezuelan output.
Shares of companies expected to benefit from US involvement rose sharply. Chevron gained up to 10 percent in pre-market trading, while Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips climbed around 4 percent. Refiners Valero and Phillips 66 rose approximately 7 percent.
Despite market fluctuations, Kuwaiti analysts noted structural limitations in Venezuela’s oil sector. Sanctions, aging infrastructure, and underinvestment constrain production. The US ban on Venezuelan oil also remains in place, meaning the crude does not add much to global supply immediately. OPEC+ cohesion further buffers markets from sudden shocks.
Kuwait’s Oil Minister, Tareq Al-Roumi, emphasized ongoing commitment to market stability. He said Kuwait’s production has averaged 2.58 million barrels per day and highlighted coordination among OPEC+ members. Maintaining current production levels reflects Kuwait’s effort to stabilize energy markets and secure reliable supply.
Dr. Firas Al-Salem, chairman of the Kuwaiti Business Council in Dubai, said US investment could gradually raise Venezuela’s production to over three million barrels per day. However, he stressed such changes would take years and would not immediately affect prices.
Energy expert Dr. Mubarak Al-Hajeri added that Venezuelan crude is heavy and technically difficult to process. Its density and composition make it challenging to directly substitute other heavy oils, including Canadian crude. Therefore, even a long-term increase in production would not instantly shift global market dynamics.
Analysts conclude that Venezuela oil impact on global supply and prices remains modest for now. Low output, ongoing sanctions, technical challenges, and coordinated OPEC+ measures all contribute to stabilizing the market. Markets may react to political developments, but fundamentals continue to limit immediate disruptions.
