Houthi forces have strengthened their position around Yemen’s Bab Al Mandab Strait, increasing risks to Red Sea shipping, Saudi energy infrastructure and global oil markets.
The developments followed an escalation along Yemen’s Red Sea coast. Houthi forces have made territorial gains near key coastal areas, including Mocha and locations close to the strategic strait. Reuters also reported that the group reached Perim Island in Bab Al Mandab.
Bab Al Mandab connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and serves as an important route for commercial and energy shipments. Any disruption could affect vessels travelling between Europe, Asia and the Middle East.
The Houthis have also increased attacks targeting Saudi Arabia. ACLED has documented a sharp escalation in Houthi activity against Saudi targets, including attacks involving missiles and drones. Energy infrastructure and other strategic facilities have faced particular risks.
The campaign has also expanded geographically. Earlier attacks focused mainly on southern Saudi Arabia, including Jizan and Najran. More recent attacks have reached farther north and involved larger missile and drone launches.
Saudi authorities have reported intercepting ballistic missiles directed toward areas including Taif and Yanbu. Houthi forces have also claimed attacks against Saudi targets, including energy facilities. Authorities have not confirmed all reported damage.
The renewed attacks have increased pressure on Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure and export routes. Saudi Arabia has relied more heavily on Red Sea routes after disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz affected regional energy shipments.
A separate drone attack temporarily disrupted the East-West oil pipeline in September. The pipeline connects Saudi Arabia’s eastern production areas with Yanbu on the Red Sea and provides an alternative route for exports.
The Houthi maritime campaign has also resumed, although its current targeting appears narrower than during the group’s wider Red Sea campaign in previous years. ACLED has recorded attacks against commercial vessels linked to Saudi interests.
However, ACLED reported a pause in corroborated maritime attacks after August 24. The change could reflect vessel rerouting, adjustments to Saudi export routes and shifts in Houthi targeting. The group could still broaden its definition of Saudi-linked shipping.
The narrower targeting may reduce the immediate risk to wider commercial traffic. However, uncertainty remains because further attacks could force more vessels to avoid the Red Sea.
For global energy markets, simultaneous insecurity around Bab Al Mandab and the Strait of Hormuz creates additional risks. Renewed attacks could increase insurance, security and freight costs while encouraging more ships to take longer routes.
Oil markets have already responded to wider regional supply concerns. Brent crude remained above $100 a barrel in late September as markets assessed risks around Hormuz and attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure.
ACLED expects the Houthis to retain much of their recent territorial gains over the coming months, although maintaining those positions could remain difficult. Fighting has intensified across several Yemeni frontlines as government-aligned forces seek to contain the advance.
Several scenarios could shape the next stage of the conflict. These include continued fighting, a counteroffensive against Houthi positions, greater foreign military involvement and renewed diplomatic efforts.
For Red Sea shipping, the main risk remains a wider maritime campaign. If Houthi forces expand their targeting beyond Saudi-linked vessels, disruption could spread across a larger share of commercial traffic.
For oil markets, insecurity around both major maritime chokepoints could place additional pressure on supply routes. Higher freight and insurance costs could also raise the cost of transporting energy and other commodities.
The situation leaves Red Sea shipping and Gulf energy infrastructure exposed to further disruption. The economic impact will depend largely on future Houthi maritime activity and developments around Bab Al Mandab and the Strait of Hormuz.
