Saudi GDP growth will reach 4.6 percent in 2026, surpassing global projections and strengthening the Kingdom’s economic momentum. The Ministry of Finance issued its pre-budget statement, projecting 4.4 percent growth in 2025 and highlighting resilience in non-oil sectors. Officials expect non-oil activity to rise by 5 percent next year, driven by strong consumer demand and higher employment.
Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jaadan reaffirmed that the government will maintain fiscal sustainability while pursuing expansionary policies. He emphasized that development and social spending priorities will remain unchanged as reforms progress.
The ministry projects 2026 revenues at SR1.15 trillion and expenditures at SR1.13 trillion. It forecasts a deficit of SR166 billion, equal to 3.3 percent of GDP. The shortfall will grow compared with 2025, mainly because of increased capital spending and lower revenue estimates.
Since 2024, the Kingdom has deliberately adopted a deficit strategy to speed up Vision 2030 projects. Officials describe this choice as a way to stimulate private sector growth and accelerate transformative investments. By increasing expenditures now, the government aims to secure long-term returns and reduce dependence on oil.
Non-oil sectors such as tourism, logistics, entertainment, and technology continue to drive growth. These industries expand revenue streams while creating sustainable jobs. The trend has already shown results, as unemployment fell to 6.8 percent in mid-2025. This milestone fulfills labor market goals under Vision 2030 and reflects a stronger domestic economy.
The ministry also projected stable inflation, with the consumer price index averaging 2.3 percent in 2025. Officials credited proactive policies for controlling price pressures and maintaining consumer confidence.
Economic analysts point out that Saudi GDP growth will exceed the International Monetary Fund’s global forecast of 3.1 percent. The Kingdom’s projection also surpasses growth estimates for the United States, China, Japan, and the euro area. Experts see this as proof of the effectiveness of reforms and diversification strategies.
Looking forward, officials acknowledge that medium-term deficits will continue because of large-scale project spending. However, they present these deficits as strategic investments that strengthen economic foundations and ensure fiscal stability over time.
As Vision 2030 advances, Saudi Arabia positions itself as a leading global investment hub. With Saudi GDP growth consistently beating international benchmarks, the Kingdom’s non-oil transformation continues to reshape its economic future.
