Saudi Arabia’s non-oil growth is expected to contribute up to 3.5 percent annually to GDP between 2025 and 2028. Experts say this growth reflects the country’s ongoing economic diversification. Hina Shoeb, head of analytics at S&P Global Saudi Arabia, noted that government and private investments will support this expansion. She highlighted real estate, tourism, and infrastructure as key sectors driving the growth. Consequently, the Kingdom is strengthening its economic resilience and reducing dependence on oil revenues.
The country’s real GDP grew 3.9 percent in the second quarter, continuing an 18-quarter growth streak. Non-oil sectors rose 4.6 percent year on year from April to June. Shoeb added that this growth aligns with the momentum generated by Vision 2030 reforms. She explained, “Non-oil sectors have become major drivers, supported by housing programs and mega-projects.” She also said long-term investment spending is steering the economy toward sustainable transformation.
In August, the International Monetary Fund projected Saudi GDP growth at 3.6 percent in 2025 and 3.9 percent in 2026. S&P Global highlighted that Vision 2030 is transforming the economic landscape. The program creates corporate growth opportunities and boosts infrastructure financing. Analysts expect non-oil activity to contribute roughly 57 percent of GDP in 2025. Consequently, this share will rise when oil prices decline.
Earlier in the year, Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Statistics reported 2.7 percent GDP growth in the first quarter, mainly driven by non-oil sectors. Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim said non-oil activities now contribute 53.2 percent of total output. He added that this figure increased 5.7 percent from previous estimates. He stressed that structural reforms and high-quality state-led projects strengthen the Kingdom’s economic outlook.
Economists predict that the growing non-oil sector will consequently attract further private and foreign investment. Meanwhile, officials continue promoting reforms and actively supporting long-term projects. Additionally, analysts emphasize that maintaining fiscal stability is essential for continued success. Furthermore, strategic development plans aim to expand growth while creating new opportunities. These factors show that non-oil growth positions Saudi Arabia as a regional economic leader while diversifying its economy.
