The World Bank raised the UAE growth forecast to 4.6% for 2025, up from 4% in January. Strong non-oil sector performance and easing OPEC+ oil production cuts drive this improvement. Expanding activities outside oil and fuel growth across the Emirates.
The latest Global Economic Prospects report shows the UAE’s economy grew by 3.9% in 2024, beating earlier estimates. Technology, manufacturing, tourism, and trade have pushed this growth. The country’s focus on innovation also drives sustainable gains beyond oil revenues.
The Central Bank reported that the non-oil economy grew 4.6% last year and expects a 4.7% GDP increase this year. Non-oil sectors should grow even faster at 5.1%, highlighting the country’s push to diversify away from oil.
OPEC+ plans to raise oil output gradually. The group agreed to add 411,000 barrels per day in July, continuing the easing of cuts started in April 2025. Despite this, the World Bank warns that lower oil prices could reduce some benefits.
Gulf economies should grow steadily. The World Bank projects growth rates of 3.2% in 2025, 4.5% in 2026, and 4.8% in 2027. Rising oil production will help, but expanding non-oil activities across Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and the UAE will play a key role.
Global growth faces challenges. The World Bank now forecasts global economic expansion at 2.3% this year, down from earlier estimates because of trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Although the report does not predict a global recession, it expects the slowest growth pace since 2008 outside of recessions.
The report highlights that trade tensions, including historic tariffs, have forced growth forecasts downward in nearly 70% of economies worldwide. This uncertainty could continue to slow investment and trade in coming years.
The UAE growth forecast benefits from strong non-oil expansion and the phasing out of oil cuts. Still, lower oil prices and global demand could limit gains. The country’s diversified economy should support sustainable growth and resilience against global shocks.
