UAE fuel prices could ease in November if Middle East oil supplies remain strong. Regional crude exports recently climbed above levels recorded before the conflict began. Consequently, stronger supply could reduce pressure on global oil prices. However, shipping risks and higher costs could continue supporting prices.
Middle East crude exports reached between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day during late September. The region recorded those levels on September 24 and between September 27 and 29. Before the conflict, regional exports averaged about 18 million barrels per day. Therefore, the recent recovery suggests producers have adapted quickly to supply disruptions.
Several producers have increased shipments through alternative routes. Saudi Arabia has also expanded crude movements through Gulf and Red Sea routes. In addition, producers have used alternative shipping arrangements and transfers between vessels. More crude has also moved through the Strait of Hormuz despite continuing security concerns.
This recovery could influence global oil prices during the coming weeks. Oil prices briefly dropped below $100 per barrel on Monday evening. However, prices moved back toward $100 on Tuesday morning. Brent traded around $100.60 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate stood near $89.71.
The UAE follows a monthly system for setting retail fuel prices. The country introduced fuel price deregulation in 2015. Since then, the Fuel Price Committee has reviewed prices at the end of every month. Therefore, changes in global oil prices can influence the following month’s local rates.
UAE fuel prices reached their highest level in more than four years during October. Super 98 increased from Dh3.80 to Dh4.40 per litre. Special 95 also climbed from Dh3.69 to Dh4.28 per litre. Meanwhile, E-Plus 91 increased from Dh3.61 to Dh4.21 per litre.
The October increases marked the second time UAE fuel prices exceeded Dh4 per litre since 2022. The earlier increase followed major disruptions in global energy markets. However, stronger Middle East exports could now provide some relief for motorists. If oil prices decline during October, local fuel rates could fall in November.
Nevertheless, analysts warn that supply figures do not remove the risks surrounding the energy market. The conflict continues to create uncertainty around regional oil transportation. In addition, attacks on vessels have increased concerns about maritime security. These risks can keep an additional premium in global oil prices.
The recent export recovery has reduced some concerns about a major supply shortage. However, insurance costs and war-risk charges remain high for many shipping operations. As a result, the market still faces costs that could prevent oil prices from falling sharply. Any major disruption could also quickly reverse recent price movements.
The energy market also faces pressure from refined products. Crude exports have recovered more strongly than gasoline and diesel shipments. At the same time, reduced Russian product supplies have tightened some markets. China’s lower export quotas for October could add further pressure on refined products.
Consequently, crude oil prices could decline while gasoline and diesel prices remain relatively firm. Refining capacity and product availability have become increasingly important market concerns. This shift could limit the benefit of lower crude prices for consumers. Therefore, motorists may not see an immediate reduction in every fuel-related cost.
Higher transportation expenses also continue to affect global energy trade. Freight costs have increased because of security concerns and longer shipping routes. War-risk insurance has also added to the cost of moving crude and refined products. Moreover, additional compliance checks can delay payments and increase working capital requirements.
These factors particularly affect smaller importers across Africa and Asia. Higher trade costs can therefore remain even when crude supply improves. A sustained improvement in regional security would help reduce these expenses. In turn, smoother shipping could support lower prices across the wider energy market.
For UAE consumers, the next major focus will remain global oil prices. Strong regional exports could provide some downward pressure during October. However, continued attacks could quickly create new concerns about supply and transportation. The situation around the Strait of Hormuz will remain especially important.
Overall, UAE fuel prices could decline if oil supplies stay above pre-conflict levels. A lasting improvement in regional security would strengthen the case for lower prices. Furthermore, normal shipping through Hormuz could remove some of the current risk premium. Until then, consumers should expect continued uncertainty around the cost of fuel.
